Fondazione Costantino Bresciani Turroni

Politica monetaria, debito, inflazione. La fase attuale
Contributi alla VII edizione della Tavola rotonda - Università degli Studi di Milano (Giugno 2004)

A cura di Gianandrea Goisis e Paola Parravicini

Collana: «Colloquium» - 2005 - 17 x 24 cm - pagg. 166- ISBN 88-7916-298-5
€ 26,00

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SOMMARIO: Premessa — 1. Michele Bagella e Rocco Ciciretti, News terroristiche e mercati finanziari — 2. Oscar Garavello, La «Doha Development Agenda» alla luce dei «bisogni ed interessi» dei paesi emergenti: la fase attuale — 3. Piero Giarda, Previsioni, consuntivi e trasparenza dei conti pubblici: in margine a una rilettura di un testo di Jacques Necker — 4. Gianandrea Goisis e Paola Parravicini, Nuove riflessioni sulle economie di scala e di scopo nel settore bancario — 5. Ezio Lancellotti, La guerra e l'unità europea — 6. Aldo Montesano, Prospettive sull'andamento dei prezzi nel mondo — 7. Giovanni Palmerio, Cause del divario nella crescita tra l'economia statunitense e l'economia europea negli anni Novanta e Duemila — 8. Alberto Quadrio Curzio, L'Italia e l'Unione europea: riflessioni di politica economica — 9. Bruno Rossignoli, Alcune notazioni sul credito commerciale nella struttura patrimoniale delle imprese — 10. Carlo Santini, Dollaro e bilancia dei pagamenti degli Stati Uniti11. Giovanna Tagliabue, Sull'introduzione della variabile «background famigliare» nei modelli di Becker

Questo volume raccoglie i contributi offerti dai partecipanti alla settima Tavola Rotonda della Fondazione Bresciani Turroni incentrata, come di consueto, sui temi di «Politica Monetaria, Debito, Inflazione: la Fase Attuale». I contributi spaziano dunque da argomenti strettamente monetari, in una prospettiva sia interna che internazionale, a questioni attuali di finanza interpretate anche alla luce delle più recenti vicende socio-politiche. I temi delle finanze e dei deficit pubblici, con riferimento anche ai loro effetti sugli aggregati monetari, hanno avuto ampio spazio in diversi saggi con richiami ad esperienze storiche recenti e meno recenti. Una particolare attenzione, a questo proposito, ha suscitato la situazione dell’economia italiana alla ricerca di una non facile composizione tra esigenze di crescita e rispetto dei patti sottoscritti nell’ambito dell’Unione Monetaria Europea. Rilievo è stato poi dato all’efficienza dei sistemi bancari sotto il duplice profilo delle economie di scala e di scopo. Infine il tema della crescita economica interna ed internazionale è discusso in diversi saggi che evidenziano l’importanza delle istituzioni e della ricerca scientifica per sfruttare appieno, in condizioni di equilibrio, lo spillover tecnologico ed il miglioramento delle conoscenze e del capitale umano.

 

Per leggere gli abstract clicca i titoli dei vari capitoli - To read the abstracts click on the title of each chapter

1. A number of events have characterized the dynamics of the new millennium financial markets. There is a change which can not only be ascribed to the resorption of the «dotcom» speculative bubble since march 2000 or to the complex geopolitical context nofollowing the 9/11 terrorist attack, but it seems that the way investors react to the news had a drastic change. Observing markets. evolution on the last twenty years, there are some stylized fact which can not be explained only invoking the influence of geopolitical and economic news on the strategies and appetites of investors.it is difficult to understand why the terrorist attack of September 11th has produced a market movement more than five times smaller than the black Monday crash. Firm specific and aggregate shocks generate reassessment of investors and analysts expectations on earnings forecasts and on the fundamental value of equities. The effects of structural shocks on financial markets has recently focused on the impact of the 9/11 attack.

2. GATT-WTO have contributed significantly to economic growth, development and employment during the past 50 years. International trade can still play a major role in the promotion of economic development and the alleviation of poverty of emerging countries if their «needs and interests» are at the heart of the Work Programme of the current negotiations. In this context, enhanced market access, balanced rules and well targeted, sustainably financed technical assistance and capacity-building programmes have important roles to play. The strategic importance of the market access for non-agricultural products (NAMA) is to dismantle commercial barriers on the rich markets of developed countries, including the reduction of tariff peaks, high tariffs and tariff escalation, as well as non-tariff barriers, especially concerning «labour intensive» goods.

3. Very frequently budget outcomes differ from initial forecasts. The paper initially present a review of events in pre-Revolutionary France after Jacques Necker presented what is probably the first budget plan relying on fiscal measures to balance the French kingdom budget for 1781. The debate that nofollowed on transparency, financial reputation of the bond issuer, contradiction between cash outcomes and authority to spend show strong resemblance with themes of the present (2005) debate on the state of Italian public finances. The paper stresses the inconsistency of Italian budgetary procedures where budget decisions are based upon legal authority to spend and commit resources but ex-post evaluations are based (Eurostat rules) on traditional resources absorption statistics. Also it stresses that Italian budget procedures have not yet solved the intricate relationship between financial planning and need evaluation.

4. This paper investigates about the existence of economies of scale and scope in the Italian banking system. The wide process of reorganization and differentiation of the banking system aloud by the 1993 legislation offers in fact a new occasion of deepening this question. The data, relative to 111 medium and large bank operating in the time 1998-1999, show significant economies of scale for both years and economies of scope connected to the production of intermediation and payment services. Also important appears the role of the bad credit when its consequences on the costs are explicitly recognized in determining of performances of bank.

5. The issue of the Constitution for Europe, in the process of ratification by the member countries of the European Union, is discussed in its historic, economic, political and institutional aspects. In particular, the shortcomings of a constitution and of a common currency without a state are stressed; the inherent contradiction of the stability pact, in the absence of a common general economic policy which only a federal state might be charged with, is pointed out; a constitutional assembly for the establishment of a European federal state, possibly among a few of the present members of the European Union to start with, is proposed.

6. A comparison is proposed between the main political-economic aspects related to the course of world prices for the two periods 1970-1974 and 2001-2004, emphasizing similarities and differences. The current international monetary system and the dominant role of the US dollar in it are presented. The perspectives on the course of world prices are briefly discussed assuming the permanence of this system, which is also examined taking into account both the large present deficit in the international accounts and the political-economic strength of USA. The International Monetary Fund forecast of world prices for the next five years is commented.

7. The fast growth of the US economy during the last fifteen years is not only due to the rapid expansion of the new economy induced by the spill-over of the scientific research and its products from the military sector to the civilian sector but also to the fast growth of the private consumption financed by a dramatic increase of the households. indebtness, to investment financed by a massive inflow of foreign capital and to a huge trade deficit. The slow growth of the European economy during the same period is due to the severe monetary and fiscal policies nofollowed by the European Central Bank and the member countries of the European Monetary Union.

8. The author considers how the Italian economic situation is difficult from the macroeconomic and the microeconomic point of view. The lowing down of Italian economic growth is worst than that of UE which is also lower than that of US. In these conditions Italy should avoid conflicts on euro and on the Stability and Growth Pact. What is necessary, on the contrary, is an economic policy to increase competitiveness, R&D and infrastructures. That is an economic policy which puts sound public finances and innovation to the core of the choices. The author analyses all these aspects also keeping inspiration from the framework of reflections of the President of the Italian Republic, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi.

9. Commercial credit plays a relevant role in Italian firms. financial statements, both on the asset and liability sides. The paper focus on the effects of payments terms on the companies. financial needs.companies usually equalize the average life of inventories with the average life of commercial debt. The average life of commercial credit is one of the main factors influencing the need for NWC. The need for NWC influences the amount of available free cash flows to re-pay debt payments. The effective payment dates significantly differ from nominal payments dates, thus generating a financial/investment mechanism strongly affected by external causes. However it does not necessarily reflect an efficient distribution of the financial resources.

10. The large and increasing deficit of the US balance of payments on current account raises the issue of the long-term sustainability of the US foreign debt position. While nobody seems to deny the existence of the issue, opinions diverge over the urgency of corrective measures. The fast . growing Asian economies are, at the same time, part of the problem and of its solution. The international monetary system and the international relations will be differently shaped should a cooperative or a conflictual model prevail.

11. This work refers to the wide existing literature on Becker's theory of human capital, and suggests a minor theoretic integration aimed at stressing the family's influence. A possible function is presented to explain the "family background" which is introduced in the short term and however, extendible to the longer term. A brief review of the introduced variables turned out necessary in order to check the economic correspondence of the suggested function, and results are in line with the principles of the same theory. The comments on the "family background" aim at stressing that the traditional model in terms of human capital can be better adjusted, providing a more precise formulation of the actual cost and, thus, of the yield of the investment in education.

 


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